(Amargosa Valley, Nevada) – The Friends of Hof campaign released today polling results showing businessman and independent challenger candidate Dennis Hof in a surprisingly strong position to pull off a major upset against incumbent Assembly James Oscarson in the Nevada State Assembly District 36 race.
The poll shows Hof with a slight 4-point lead, with an estimated margin of error of plus/minus 4%.
“This survey was conducted before putting up our first billboards in the district and before we launched our new website and digital media campaign,” Hof said. “So considering I’m running against a lobbyist-backed incumbent with campaign cash oozing out of every orifice on his body, I’m feeling pretty optimistic.”
The five-question robo-poll survey of 531 registered voters from all parties was conducted by longtime Nevada polling firm PMI, Inc. for the Hof campaign over the weeklong period of August 31 – September 8, 2016.
As Mr. Hof is a businessman and “outsider” candidate running against an experienced politician, the base question was on the presidential race. For Question 1, Donald Trump out-polled Hillary Clinton by a substantial margin, 68-32% (numbers rounded).
Question 2 asked respondents if they supported or opposed the $1.4 billion tax hike passed by the Nevada Legislature in the 2015 session. 79% said they opposed, with just 21% saying they supported it.
Question 3 asked respondents if they were more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate who voted for that tax hike last year. Unsurprisingly, 76% said they were less likely to vote for a candidate who voted for the tax hike and 24% said more likely. (Mr. Oscarson voted for the tax hike.)
Question 4 asked respondents if they would vote against a candidate because the candidate owned legal brothels in Nevada. 78% said owning brothels was not a disqualifier, with 22% saying it was.
Question 5 was a “horse-race” question asking which candidate they would vote for in the District 36 race – Dennis Hof or James Oscarson – if the election were held today. Hof garnered 52% of the vote and Oscarson received 48%.